Volume 3,Issue 9
Economic Loss Assessment of Land Subsidence: A Case Study of Shenzhen City
As a highly urbanized megacity, Shenzhen has soft soil layers distributed in its western coastal areas. Driven by factors such as groundwater extraction and urban engineering construction, it faces the risk of land subsidence. This paper constructs a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Shenzhen to assess the economic impact of land subsidence in soft soil areas. Simulation results show that subsidence will lead to a decrease of approximately 0.85% in Shenzhen’s real GDP, presenting a dual impact path: it will severely weaken the export competitiveness of sectors such as mining and manufacturing, while causing significant value-added losses to asset-intensive sectors such as construction and transportation. The study finds that post-disaster restoration demand will stimulate short-term growth in labor input and total investment, forming a “disaster stimulus” effect. However, corporate income and total savings still suffer substantial declines (reaching -4.12% and -3.24% respectively), and the associated losses far exceed direct losses. The research indicates that disaster prevention and mitigation policies need to adopt differentiated strategies based on sectoral heterogeneity to enhance urban economic resilience.
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